Sensitivity of ice-cemented Antarctic soils to greenhouse-induced thawing: Are terrestrial archives at risk?

We modeled the sensitivity of six ice-cemented slope deposits from the western McMurdo Dry Valleys, Antarctica to failure by shallow, thaw-induced planar sliding. The deposits examined have purportedly remained physically stable, without morphologic evidence for downslope movement, for millions of years. Could they fail in the near future from greenhouse-induced warming? To address this question, we first prescribed various increases in mean summertime soil surface temperature (MSSST) and modeled numerically the resultant changes in soil thaw depths using a one-dimensional heat diffusion equation (including the effects of latent heat of fusion). Second, we calculated the minimum thaw depths required to facilitate failure by shallow planar sliding for each deposit; for all numerical simulations, we maintained present soil-moisture conditions and used a Mohr–Coulomb-based equation of safety factor. Third, we calculated the rate of subsurface meltwater flow assuming Darcy's Law. Our results show that although most deposits contain sufficient subsurface ice to induce sliding upon thawing, lateral rates of water flow of as much as ∼40 m/day for some colluvial deposits prohibit the build-up of requisite pore pressures for failure. On the other hand, silty deposits, that contain gravimetric water ≥15%, occur on slopes N20°, and possess low hydraulic conductivities (∼30–60 cm/day), common in the Dry Valleys region, could fail if MSSST, and by inference mean summertime atmospheric temperatures, increase by 4 to 9 °C. This temperature increase is similar to that predicted to occur from greenhouse-induced warming in Antarctica over the next century. © 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.